[2026-08-31][🇹🇷 TUR Süper Lig][Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor]

the numbers tell a story of efficiency

At first glance, Eyüpspor’s recent form appears more threatening — they average 1.7 goals per game, compared to Alanyaspor’s 1.3. But the numbers reveal a more nuanced picture. While Eyüpspor take more shots (7.3 per game), Alanyaspor’s shot conversion is far more efficient. They average 4.2 shots on target per game, compared to Eyüpspor’s 1.7. This suggests a clear difference in quality, not quantity.

the xG gap is telling

Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of chances created, and here, Alanyaspor’s edge becomes even more pronounced. Over their recent matches, they have generated 1.15 xG per game, significantly higher than Eyüpspor’s 0.37. This means that even though Alanyaspor take fewer shots overall, the ones they create are more likely to result in goals. It’s a sign of clinical finishing and better positioning in front of goal.

possession and corners: a mismatch in control

Alanyaspor also dominate in other key areas of the game. They average 44% possession and 4.0 corners per game, compared to Eyüpspor’s 37% and 2.0 corners. This suggests that Alanyaspor are not only creating more chances but also controlling the tempo and spatial structure of the match. Their ability to win the ball back and transition quickly could be a major factor in how this game unfolds.

what to watch for

The key to this match will be how Alanyaspor manage their chances. Their high xG and shot accuracy indicate that they are capable of breaking down even the most disciplined defenses. Eyüpspor, on the other hand, may struggle to convert their lower xG into actual goals. If Alanyaspor can maintain their efficiency and capitalize on their better possession and corner count, they are likely to come out on top.

the call: a narrow away win

The numbers point to Alanyaspor as the more likely winner, with the projected win probabilities at 39% for them, 26% for Eyüpspor, and 34% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Alanyaspor, and the projection suggests that both teams may not score, with the game likely to be under 2.5 goals. This aligns with the idea that Alanyaspor’s efficiency will be the deciding factor.

However, this prediction hinges on Alanyaspor maintaining their current level of performance. If Eyüpspor can find a way to break down Alanyaspor’s defense — perhaps through a quick counter-attack or a set piece — the result could be different. But given the current form and stats, I lean towards Alanyaspor’s efficiency being the key to this match.”

This article is a reference analysis based on public statistics and does not encourage betting. Actual results may differ.