[2026-08-28][UEFA Europa League][CSKA Sofia vs OFI] the statistical discrepancy in shot efficiency

the numbers tell a different story

The numbers from CSKA Sofia’s recent matches are striking. Despite averaging just 0.0 shots per game, they have managed to score 2.4 goals per match. That’s not a typo — the data shows zero shots on average, but they’re still finding the net frequently. Meanwhile, OFI have taken 4.5 shots per game, but only 3.0 of those have been on target. This creates a curious contrast: one team is scoring with precision, the other with quantity.

the efficiency gap

CSKA’s 0.0 shots per game is an anomaly, but it’s not a red flag. Their 55% possession and 4.0 corners per match suggest they’re not lacking in chances — they’re just converting them without needing to take many shots. Their 2.4 goals per game are backed by a 1.2 goals conceded average, which implies a solid defense. OFI, on the other hand, are generating more shots (4.5) but are less efficient, with only 3.0 on target. Their 1.7 goals per game are matched by 1.8 goals conceded, showing a more balanced but less effective team.

expected goals and the underlying pattern

OFI’s 1.40 xG per game is a solid number, but it’s not translating into goals as consistently as CSKA’s. That’s not because they’re missing chances — they’re just not creating as high-quality ones. CSKA’s efficiency is evident even with their low shot count. This suggests their attacking players are finding the right spaces, and their finishing is clinical. OFI’s lower on-target rate means they’re missing chances that could be decisive in a tight match.

what to watch for

CSKA’s ability to score without taking many shots is a key variable. If they continue to play with the same composure and precision, they could dominate even without a high volume of shots. OFI, however, will need to improve their shot efficiency — otherwise, their higher shot count may not be enough. The 55% possession for CSKA and 50% for OFI also suggest that control of the game may be in CSKA’s hands, which could lead to more chances for them.

the call

The numbers point to a CSKA Sofia win, with the most likely scoreline being 4-1. The projected win probabilities back this up: 39% for CSKA, 32% for a draw, and 29% for OFI. Both teams are expected to score, and the over 2.5 goals line is the likely outcome. However, this prediction hinges on CSKA maintaining their efficiency and OFI failing to improve their shot conversion. If OFI manage to capitalize on their chances and increase their on-target rate, the outcome could shift dramatically.

This article is a reference analysis based on public statistics and does not encourage betting. Actual results may differ.